Brands such as Mercedes-Benz, Ferrari, Nike, Adidas and eBay are actively working on it: linking physical products to virtual ones. It is the new trend in marketing land. But what are phygitals and what can you do with them as an organization? This article explains everything about it. The concept of phygitals has been around since 2007 and was coined on the other side of the world, in Australia. In the original context of marketing communications, it refers to building relationships with customers in both the physical and digital worlds. Due to the emergence and possibilities of NFTs (and underlying blockchain technology), it suddenly becomes very easy to facilitate this and more and more organizations are using this.

For example, several major brands have started connecting physical goods with virtual counterparts in the past year. This has revealed interesting use cases:

1) Post-purchase marketing of a product or service

When you purchase a physical item, you will receive an NFT associated with it. With that NFT you can then unlock all kinds of unique experiences online. A nice gimmick for the customer and it is very interesting for the company, because they can generate a lot of interesting data after the purchase.

2) Mapping secondary sales

By linking physical products to NFTs using NFC chips, brands can track secondary sales, new owners, and general holder behavior.

3) Authenticity and traceability

I previously wrote about the scale of counterfeit products in Europe, which according to the OECD amounts to more than $500 billion per year. From fish and chicken, sneakers to bags. You can check authenticity with phygitals. This is done by scanning a RIFD or NFC chip, which is connected to a virtual variant and with which the authenticity can be checked

4) Limited editions

This includes publishing (selling or raffling) unique physical and virtual collections for, for example, a loyal fan base. The most diverse combinations are possible here. Only fans who have purchased a physical item can purchase (or receive) a virtual version and vice versa.

Nike: co-creation, gamification and phygitals

There are already many brands that have fully delved into phygitals. Nike launched the virtual “OurForce 1” collection on its blockchain platform SWOOSH. The reason for setting up this platform according to the brand:

Those champions athletes and serves the future of sport by creating a new, inclusive digital community and experience and a home for Nike virtual creations.

This collection is part of a competition where Nike fans were invited to design a futuristic virtual shoe. Only participants in this competition were allowed to purchase a special physical sneaker at the end of last year, which the brand launched separately for this purpose. A wonderful example of the convergence of co-creation, gamification and phygitals.

Nike never viewed technology as simply another channel for transactions, but rather a means of creating an ongoing connection with their customers, while also connecting their customers to the community. – Doug Stephens, retail futurist

This is not a jpeg

The brand is constantly launching phygital projects, such as recently the ‘Air Force 1 Low TINAJ’, where TINAJ stands for “This is not a jpeg”. A nod to how many people are still looking at NFTs.

The plans for the SWOOSH platform are great. Not only do you get unique access to special events with athletes, but you can also wear the virtual clothing in games, for example. You can also download the 3D drawings so that you can personalize them further. More than a billion dollars worth of virtual clothing from the clothing brand has already been traded.

Dior & Ralph Lauren: phygital shoes

Dior also worked on phygital shoes and launched a line of sneakers with a digital twin on the blockchain. An NFC chip is built into the right sole of the physical shoe, which allows the authenticity of the shoe to be verified. You can also view the different steps in the production process and receive a notification when a new collection is available.

Clothing brand Ralph Lauren went one step further and launched its own (virtual) island within one of the most popular gaming platforms; Fortnite. Here users can play the Race to Greatness game and win fun virtual goodies. To participate in the race in style, users can purchase a digital pair of shoes from the clothing brand, which cost $15. There is also a limited edition of a physical variant.

Safes and suitcases

Although most clothing brands started their virtual journey with sneakers, more and more special items are being phygitized. Louis Vuitton, for example, launched a Treasure Trunk. A virtual suitcase that retails for $39,000 each.

People who think they can make quick money by buying a suitcase and selling it for a higher amount will be disappointed. There are all kinds of new options to prevent this ‘flipping’. I previously wrote about ‘solbound tokens’; tokens that you cannot resell.

This is useful if, for example, you want to save a diploma or other certificate, which DUO is now experimenting with. But also with unique virtual items, which as a brand you want to really remain the property of a fan and not be used for speculative trading.

Convert Gucci Material NFT into physical product

Gucci has also shown a very nice use case of phygitals. The brand offered holders of a Gucci Material NFT the opportunity to exchange it for a physical Gucci product, such as a bag or wallet, at no cost. These NFTs could be won in the game Battle Town, where Gucci had set up a virtual fashion store.

FIAT & Mercedes

By the way, it’s not just clothing brands that have discovered all these cool possibilities. The most diverse use cases are now being developed and launched by companies. For example, car manufacturer FIAT has put its loyalty program on the blockchain and launched the FIAT Pass, a digital loyalty card that offers all kinds of benefits. Fellow Mercedes wants to store things such as title deeds and rights of use of their cars as NFT and has already applied for patents for this.

Physigals also make unique collaborations possible; clothing manufacturer Adidas, for example, collaborates with car manufacturer Bugatti. They launched a special collection of shoes, inspired by Bugatti design. You will immediately receive a virtual version of this, which gives you access to the Adidas Collect Web3 platform.

Penguins & Passports

Another special technological step further?Pudgy Penguins shows it. It sold 20,000 phygital penguins in one day via Amazon. Physical hugs, which are linked to a virtual variant. You will receive a birth certificate, which gives access to the virtual environment. Here you can further customize the penguin to your liking, play penguin games and communicate with other owners.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=4Exe6SLU6lE%3Ffeature%3Doembed

Now I understand that many organizations think; this is still a bridge too far. This does not suit my target group or a virtual experience is not of much use at the moment. Yet it certainly makes sense to think about it, for example if you make clothing, shoes or another type of textile. From 2027, you must add a ‘Digital Product Passport’ to every product in the EU.

This is part of the European ‘Green Deal’. Each product passport contains information about what materials the product consists of and where it comes from. To accelerate the circular economy, it should also contain information on how the product can be used, discarded, reused or recycled.

Some manufacturers have already taken a big step in this, by working together within the AURA blockchain consortium. Not only all brands of the LVHM Group are collected here (Louis Vuitton, Bulgari, Cartier, Dior, Prada), but also companies such as Mercedes Benz.

Get started yourself & what’s next

If you want to get started with this yourself, it is not only worthwhile to look at the cases of the previously mentioned brands. But also look at the parties that technically facilitate all this, such as Boson, Web3Sense and Addressable. Ciety is a super cool platform where you can easily create your own collection of merchandise, linked to a virtual variant and online environment.

Due to the rapid developments in the field of phygitals, but also blockchain and metaverse, I expect many more cool developments in the coming year. The UX of many solutions is getting better and better, so that the user no longer even realizes that they are using certain technologies (such as blockchain, NFTs, etc.).

As I wrote a few times over the past year here on Frankwatching about the metaverse; Generation Z and Alpha are not only often used to virtual experiences, but also increasingly prefer them to physical experiences.

I see this rapidly changing from a fun gimmick to an important part of both the marketing and the ecosystem surrounding a brand.

Dogs, frogs and cats. Animals that have been inspiration for so-called ‘meme coins’. Cryptocurrencies that are often set up as a joke, but due to their popularity have sometimes become worth more than a Dutch multinational. In addition, their impact and influence extends far beyond simple humor. In this blog I will discuss in detail what exactly ‘memecoins’ are and what you can do with them.

According to Van Dale, a ‘meme’ is a humorous image, video or piece of text that is copied, usually with minor variations, and quickly spread by internet users.

Memecoins are not much different from this definition in that respect: they are nothing more than cryptocurrencies inspired by memes and internet jokes.

The coin is completely useless and for entertainment purposes only. – Founders Pepecoin

Humor meets crypto

The coins are designed like any other cryptocurrency, such as Bitcoin or Ethereum, but almost never have fundamental value or a special use case. Their value largely depends on how much momentum the joke can generate. Most investors often buy meme coins to be part of a community or just for fun. The only use case for most memecoins is really pure speculation.

Yet this is taking serious proportions. At their all-time high, Dogecoin reached a market capitalization of $84 billion, which at the time was equal to the value of a company like Uber or Unilever. The second memecoin Shiba Inu reached a valuation of $40 billion. At the time, it was as much as the value of PostNL.

What do you meme?

The original and most prominent memecoin is Dogecoin (DOGE). DOGE was founded in 2013 by software engineers Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer and was branded entirely around a popular meme: the Shiba Inu dog. The name is an incorrect spelling of the word dog, again intended purely as a joke.

According to the founders, this wasn’t just a joke. They wanted to send a clear message against the many crypto projects, which ultimately turn out to be just a ‘scam’.

My whole point of dogecoin was taking a jab at all these alt-coins that were coming on the scene and basically making a cash grab. – Jackson Palmer, Founder Dogecoin

But in what would become a hallmark of other memecoins to follow, Dogecoin began to make a name for itself thanks to a fanatical community of users. Who acquired a kind of cult status. For example, when the Jamaican bobsled team qualified for the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia, but could not finance the trip, the Dogecoin community came together to raise approximately $30,000 for charity.

But it wasn’t until celebrities started supporting Dogecoin that the price skyrocketed. The coin’s most notable booster is Elon Musk. The billionaire has constantly promoted Dogecoin and even appeared in a sketch on the popular TV show “Saturday Night Live” in which he referred to himself as the “Dogefather.” With effect; at its peak, Musk’s support propelled Dogecoin to a market size of $88 billion in May 2021.

From meme to coin in 22 seconds

Previously I wrote about how easy it is nowadays to create your own digital currency. You’ve already made one in 22 seconds.

The open-source nature of the blockchain technology that makes cryptocurrencies work ensures that makers can simply ‘fork’ existing cryptos. This means that you literally copy all the code of an existing crypto, paste a different logo on it and change the name. And then launch it as a new crypto.

Many cryptocurrency projects put all their code on Github. So you can literally use all of Bitcoin’s code to create a new cryptocurrency yourself, in literal seconds. Or you just use GPT! An Australian artist created his own cryptocurrency ‘Turbo’. Which quickly rose to a $77 million value.

What is money anymore?

A fun discussion I always have with the audience when I talk about cryptocurrencies is the definition of money. Because are cryptocurrencies, such as memecoins, money? According to the Dutch Bank:

Money has three functions. It is a unit to express value, we use it to save and of course we also pay with it.

Many crypto enthusiasts say that crypto can function well as a medium of exchange, unit of account and store of value. If we go back in history, we see the most special forms of money.

In fact, the word “salary” comes from the Latin word for salt, “salarium.” This is because salt is one of the oldest ways in which we spread cash in Roman times and the Middle Ages. But in 2024 we do not only work with coins and notes. In fact, in Italy, a bank still accepts whole Parmesan cheeses as collateral for loans and has 440,000 of them in its vault. Bottle caps are still used in Cameroon and certain shells are still used in the Solomon Islands.

If we look at the number of users of the largest memecoin Dogecoin alone, it exceeds the number of inhabitants of a country such as Croatia or Oman.

But then it quickly turned into a legitimate thing… and at that point, I was like, ‘Oh my god, now I feel responsible for this joke’. I feel responsible for this economy.– Jackson Palmer, Founder Dogecoin

All about the meme?

In addition, unlike fiat currencies such as the Euro and Dollar, most cryptocurrencies are fully decentralized and operate peer-to-peer. Without an intermediary such as a bank, credit card company or Paypal. Something that appeals to more and more people after the financial crisis and in recent years. In which more and more people lose their confidence in financial institutions such as banks and governments. While the Boston Consultancy Group predicts that the number of cryptocurrency users will rise to one billion by 2030, there are now also analyzes that predict this will happen next year.

I think it is more than an outsider within cryptocurrency. It is a cultural and economic movement born from the unique blend of technology, social media and a shared interest among an ever-growing group to democratize the financial world. They give internet communities the opportunity to create and attribute value to a digital asset based on a shared story and belief.

Even though they are not without risks and challenges, in my opinion they make for a very cool intersection of money and internet culture. Our idea of ​​what exactly ‘value’ is is also being put to the test.

With the worldwide craze surrounding Generative AI, it’s hard to imagine that this actually only started a year ago. And it won’t go away anytime soon. The number of new cool tools and upgrades to existing ones in the past twelve months has been astonishing. Every time you think you know all the good tools and functionalities, but at the end of the day that knowledge is already outdated. In the coming year it seems that this speed of developments will not slow down. On the contrary. Writing a trend blog for 2024 is an interesting task, but I’m going to try it!

Sixteen years ago, when the iPhone was introduced, did you expect that a decade later we would be staring at it for hours a day? Navigate, edit photos and videos, bank, video calling. The cool thing about many technologies is that we often don’t even know or could predict the coolest functions yet. You now see that with Generative AI, but you also saw that with crypto, for example; that was introduced as purely a peer-to-peer cash system. The next generation of the internet is now being built with it and there are numerous offshoots such as NFTs, CBDCs and DeFi.

Major Consultant and Banks

The superlatives surrounding GenAI also continue to fall short of the predictions of major consultants and banks. Because it is ‘the next productivity frontier’ according to McKinsey, this could save companies $2.6-$4.4 trillion next year. According to Goldman Sachs, this will also result in an increase in the value of goods and services of 7%. Research from KPMG also clearly shows this; 73% of companies expect GenAI to increase employee productivity in the coming year and 71% want to implement the technology in the coming year.

As the motto of one of the best-known startup incubators Y-combinator puts it so beautifully; “Make Something People Want”. When I talk about GenAI, I always see plenty of hands raised from people who have not yet played with a GenAI tool or even work with it on a daily basis. But this is not because they don’t want to. Every time I ask questions, the main thing I hear is that developments are going too fast for many people and they don’t know where to start. It’s like going to a tribe of Indians somewhere in the jungle and pushing a smartphone into people’s hands. But with the multitude of courses and most importantly; the ease with which you can start working immediately and free of charge will cause adoption figures to rise unprecedentedly in the coming year.

The renaissance of our work and workplace

In my opinion, AI will really fundamentally change the human-machine relationship in the workplace. While the focus this past year has been on how GenAI can help with content creation, I expect to see much broader adoption next year. Not just generating beautiful newsletters and images, but really helping with advanced analytics, predictive insights for projects and business management, software development, greatly improved customer service and facilitating more effective outcomes such as in healthcare.

Make better and faster decisions, because you no longer have to wait for the opinion of a colleague or supplier. You no longer have to think about whether it is worth it to outsource a question, because you will not immediately receive an invoice for the advice. You can now make analyzes based on your own data, which you could never make yourself before.

I now have customers who include GenAI as standard in meetings and brainstorms and, because of the results, are even considering minimizing the number of planned brainstorms and leaving this to the technology. I have friends who love that they get so much good code at the start of the day by playing with CoPilot for half an hour, that they can do their own things for the rest of the day without the boss noticing.

GenAI

There are of course plenty of other examples of the impact on work; from companies that have replaced entire departments of staff with GenAI to companies that have uploaded their entire data archive into GenAI, which now serves as a basic knowledge source for employees. McKinsey launched Lilli, JP Morgan JPM and uploaded hundreds of thousands of research reports and other useful PDF files. Employees worldwide can now log in and ask the chatbot for advice.

But this rapid progress, in my view, makes the redefinition of work and functions necessary in the coming year. Because instead of getting completely sucked into the GenAI flow and working with the tools all day long, I think it is important as a professional to first take a step back and recalibrate in 2024.

Which activities would you prefer to delegate, eliminate or outsource? Which activities secretly cost you a lot of time? What often contains the most slack in a project? What analyzes would you like to make, with all the data and documents you have? Which activities that I cannot perform myself are important for achieving my goals next year?

FOBO sharpens the mind!

With these first questions, I took a close look at my own companies and activities and selected 30 tools via ThereIsAnAIforThat to try out, which ultimately left me with 8 that I use every week and 2 every month. Not only for generating and optimizing content, but also continuous analyses, brainstorming and enriching my product offering to customers.

In my search for good tools I have had FOBO (fear of being obsolete) a few times; I saw AI tools that gave such great results in seconds that they simply overshadowed some of the consulting activities that I marketed myself. I now simply offer these tools proactively to customers, with of course guidance on how to use them properly, in a broader package of services. The customers are even happier and my work has not deteriorated. Don’t be afraid that AI will also take over your own activities, but really worry about how you can make other activities even much stronger.

Back to the prompt table

As humans we are simply lazy; just look at the most searched search terms on Google (‘how can I do the fastest X, easiest X, etc.). According to research, our brains are programmed in this way so that we use as little energy as possible. This does not only have to do with people who do not exercise as a result. I work out every morning, but in many areas I am looking for anything but a goat path. According to scientists, we call many such activities ‘efficient’, but in principle we are just exhibiting lazy behavior.

I see the same thing with many professionals who work with prompts. Why make things difficult when you can just copy a prompt from a blog or use one from a colleague, which will give you a result you’re happy with? I often receive feedback from customers that they are dissatisfied with the output of various GenAI tools. But that’s usually because the prompts are too general or don’t fit the assignment.

We have been able to experiment with the many tools over the past year, in my view 2024 is the opposite of a Prompt Paradigm Shift. Professionals who want to get ahead of the pack are going back to the drawing board and scrutinizing their prompts very closely. Looking at all possible factors that can still be added or tightened up. For example, I now use a prompt of ¾ A4 for my SEO work. In addition, I no longer rely on one prompt that will do the trick right away, but rather a series of prompts that lead to the perfect result. We see a wonderful example of this at NASA.

Beware of BYOAI colleagues who work in the shadows

The GPT convenience serves working people incredibly well. But many employees forget that much of the data they use is confidential. Research shows that 11% of the data that people paste into GPT is actually confidential data. Which can cause very unpleasant effects. For example, Samsung discovered that developers were using GPT to test code, because GPT suddenly came up with highly confidential source code from the tech company. According to research by Dell, 91% of professionals have already worked with GenAI. Just think about how much confidential data is already stored in the bot.

There are plenty of organizations that have already blocked GPT for employees, such as Dutch ministries, banks and countless companies. Not only for fear of leaking confidential data, but also because of, for example, lack of clarity about privacy and regulatory issues. But I hear plenty of customers who still use the tools, because the unprecedented power not only saves a lot of time, but also really enriches the work itself in terms of quality. From hotel chains to supply companies. Real ‘bring-your-own-AI’ (BYOAI), without this actually being allowed by employers.

Shadow AI

Here I see an undesirable development emerging; the formation of Shadow AI. We previously saw Shadow IT, where individuals or even entire departments within a company saw the power of certain IT and started using it without authorization. With all the associated safety risks. This happened a lot, for example, with cloud data and Software-As-A-Service.

Man is lazy, but not stupid. I was recently working with a customer in his office and we wanted to look at an AI tool together. This was blocked on the network and therefore could not be accessed on the phone via WiFi. Indeed; two seconds later the WiFi was disabled and the tool was used on the 5G network without any problems. Are you going to stop something like that? Impossible. It does indicate the urgency of a good protocol that you record with all colleagues.

Multimodal will become the new normal

AI has been used in large organizations, such as healthcare, for many years. With the healthcare crisis we are heading for in the Netherlands, smart tools that save doctors’ time and also allow them to work more efficiently are very welcome. A good example of an AI that has a major impact on this is Google’s breast cancer detection. A process from initial detection to results, which can easily take two weeks. But with Google’s tool you get a result within a minute, with an accuracy of 99.98%.

Multi Modal AI

This is an example of a ‘multi modal’ AI; a tool that can also see, hear and talk. Until now, most GenAI tools specialized in simulating a single form of expression. However, with the arrival of models such as GPT-4, the trend in GenAI is towards multimodality. For example, Meta has already shown a GenAI model (ImageBind) that can simultaneously bring together images, text, audio and temperature in an analysis.

These tools are also already widely used; I recently spoke to a pharmaceutical company, where most doctors in the room admitted that they sometimes throw an MRI into GPT for a second opinion. But I also see owners of web shops, for example, working hard on this. For example, by uploading a photo of a product and getting a perfect SEO-optimized description for the online store. I personally use tools such as Otter.ai for taking minutes of appointments. Glif is also worth a try, which allows you to generate a whole set of art, cartoon drawings, selfies and more with a simple prompt.

In addition, I see funny examples every day of things that would never have been possible before, but suddenly become possible with multimodal AI:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MAFdzBTe2lg

Of course, this can also be used on a much more advanced and large scale. In my opinion, these new models open doors to unprecedented new possibilities with the use of GenAI.

Google has already created a multimodal system, which can predict the next dialogue in a video clip. Car manufacturers use it for the ongoing situation analysis of self-driving cars. Nine out of ten Dutch hospitals use it, mainly to determine the best treatment.

It’s time to act with an act!

Brussels is once again realizing the ‘Brussels effect’; it is the first major government worldwide to introduce far-reaching legislation and regulations. The AI ​​Act classifies the various applications per risk, which in turn is linked to the strictness of the rules. In addition, the tools must also comply with European copyright and European transparency obligations.

I once again read all kinds of ‘breaking’ messages on Linkedin from people who think that this completely limits innovation within the EU. But just like with the MICAR legislation, the European legislation and regulations in the field of cryptocurrency, which will come in handy next year, I see many advantages. Just as with cryptocurrencies, I hear from plenty of customers that they are waiting to use the technology until there is more clarity in terms of legislation and regulations. So that will be next year.

There are simply enough bad actors in the technology industry. In my view, well-thought-out legislation will ensure that the benefits of AI are fully realized while protecting the fundamental rights and safety of users. In addition, companies that use the technology should also take a good look at possible risks.

I am very bad at remembering names and had hoped that I could pair the smart Rayban-Meta glasses with Pimeyes. Unfortunately; matters such as real-time identification of people based on biometric data are not permitted under this legislation. Probably to avoid Chinese situations.

Together they are even stronger

In my view, the big next development in tech is convergence; the coming together of technologies that ensure an even more powerful symbiosis. That is not only nice, but also very necessary. Just look at the early years of cryptocurrency; According to research, the underlying blockchain technology used as much energy worldwide as the total energy consumption of the Netherlands. A problem that has already been largely solved with ‘the merge’ (the most used blockchain Ethereum reduced its energy consumption by 99.8% due to a major upgrade, which I wrote about earlier).

The American MIT recently released a study showing that generating one image with Midjourney costs the same amount of electricity as fully charging the phone. Google recently indicated that GenAI accounts for 10-15% of its global energy consumption. Microsoft also saw this energy use with its own AI tools and is therefore now even looking at its own nuclear power plants to provide the required energy consumption in the coming years.

Fortunately, in the field of GenAI, we are now seeing great convergence with ‘edge computing’, which brings the data storage and the IT tool closer to the user. So much more decentralized, instead of central.

Friend of GenAI – Blockchain

Blockchain is also seen as a great friend of GenAI. Blockchain ensures secure storage of data, which can be used in many different ways. It can help validate the authenticity of images, videos, documents and other types of media by being able to cryptographically verify where a piece of content came from and whether it has been tampered or altered in any way. This is done through so-called Timestamping, which was recently also used to prevent fraud during the elections in Guatemala.

The many GenAI tools rely on large data sets. There are plenty of people who wonder; Why would I give my data to such a tool if I am not rewarded for it? This is where a beautiful convergence emerges between GenAI and cryptocurrencies. Germany’s Bosch rewards users for sharing data with cryptocurrency. Something that is made possible by Fetch.ai, whose CEO and founder recently spoke to me at an event. He was one of the founders of Deepmind (which was acquired by Google and transformed into the AI ​​department of the tech giant) and is now building solutions with Fetch to easily make money by sharing data.

Next year, quantum technology will also make AI much more powerful.

Quantum technology provides exponentially greater computing power for computers. This allows AI to process, work and analyze data much faster. We are not talking about simply finding a break in an MRI scan, but really testing new medicines and managing financial markets through simulations. GenAI on steroids. More and more platforms are being added that you as an organization can use immediately, such as Sandbox and Xanadu.

And young people? Virtual world builders, such as the very popular Roblox, have already made countless GenAI tools available and will greatly expand this next year.

Don’t forget ethics!

With all the great and cool tools, we still too often forget the ethical aspects. The EU’s AI Act already provides more transparency and that is really important. In my view, it will quickly become more difficult to ignore concerns about its impact on privacy, data protection and business operations in the coming year. Especially about how to handle GenAI responsibly.

Here too there is convergence; the ethical issue is a responsibility that must be shared by everyone: developers who design and market the GenAI models, users who use them for different applications and legislators who determine the rules of the game. Here, a much better balance really needs to be found between maximizing the benefits of generative AI and protecting our core human values.

That is quite a task, as has been evident over the past year. Numerous content creators, from well-known book authors to photo stocks, have sued the makers of GenAI tools, because they believe that their content should not simply be used for training AI. Something that the makers of the tools do not agree with. But also the ‘hallicunations’, which can sometimes provide hilarious but also increasingly shocking, offensive content. Many policymakers are already squinting at next year, when half of the world’s population will be allowed to go to the polls. What impact will GenAI have on this? The possible consequences of incorrect use raise numerous ethical issues.

Business Opportunities

Now the biggest challenges on the web are often also very big business opportunities. Tools such as those from Delft-based DuckDuckGo offer solutions for this, large companies are setting up their own ‘AI ethical board’, global Ethical-AI consortia are being launched and the EU AI act provides a number of additional tools. Next year will be an important test in that regard.

Making it completely ethical will never work. You also see this with countless other technologies. Legislation and regulations surrounding ethics remain a cat-and-mouse game between the ‘bad actors’ and governments. As a speaker at an event I recently said so beautifully; ‘it’s a journey, not a destination; a continuous process of developing, learning and adapting‘.

With the speed at which developments in the field of GenAI are currently taking place, I am curious to see what the predictions will become and, above all; what unexpected but impactful developments we will see unfold in 2024. As Peter Drucker so beautifully puts it, “the unexpected was the richest source of opportunity for successful innovation. Unfortunately, expected occurrences are not only many times neglected, but are frequently actively rejected so they are never exploited as innovations.”

This winter is a dark, rainy period. Many therefore like to leave the country to seek out the sun. Unfortunately, we don’t always have the time or money to go out. But what if I told you that you can visit a beautiful destination and experience a cool adventure, right from the comfort of your home? In this article I share some special metaverse holiday hotspots.

Major research from Booking.com in recent months shows that almost half (43%) of global travelers will use virtual reality in the coming year to inspire their holiday choices. More than a third (35%) of travelers say they would like to experience a multi-day virtual reality travel experience.

Metaverse and tourism

There is a clear link between the development of tourism and that of technology. From the computerized booking centers of the 1970s, to the introduction of the internet in the late 1990s, technology has always been used in tourism to develop new practices. The metaverse is part of this evolution of the Internet.More and more immersive technologies are being used to deliver physical experiences. This blurs the boundaries between real and virtual life.

Do you need VR glasses for that? Certainly not. You can also visit most destinations from your laptop or tablet. I’d like to share a few of my favorite destinations that you can visit from the comfort of your couch.

Museums

Louvre: This famous museum is flooded with enthusiasts wanting to see the Mona Lisa. For people who do not want to travel to Paris and want to get to know the woman in the work of art in peace, this virtual experience is definitely recommended!

MoMa: for modern and contemporary art in New York.

Historical hotspots

The Sistine Chapel: also a frequently visited destination, where you can virtually walk through in peace and quiet.

Yourescape: here you can visit countless special buildings, such as the Acropolis and temples, in 3D. You can walk and fly through it and enjoy a lot of cool content, reconstructions. You can also visit parts that cannot (anymore) be visited physically.

Places, cities and countries

Time Square: the popular traffic intersection in New York.

Tuvalu: you can walk on the beach on the Maldives in this 1-1 clone of this island.

The tallest tower in the world: the Burj Khalifa in Dubai.

Moyaland: The most successful metaverse destination in my opinion. A Frenchman has set up a completely new, virtual country in his spare time. Complete with a tourist office, museums, an airport and a historic center where residents and tourists can virtually walk around.

DokomoDoors: offers tons of cool VR tours of Japanese cities.

Australia’s most popular island: Hamilton Island.

Nice with the rain you see falling through the window: the Maldives

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOZCrDlAHtw

Natural areas

National Geographic: from high mountains to deep seas, jungles to deserts. Truly a great source of lots of VR adventures! You can view the many destinations with VR glasses here and simply from a flat screen here.

Costa Rica has created this amazing VR environment where you can watch thousands of turtles lay their eggs.

Virtual hotels

Millennium Hotels and Resorts

LEVENverse has great graphics

Other special metaverse environments

Jurrasic Park: You do need VR glasses for this destination… But you also want them when walking around among the T.rexes!

LEVENverse: More and more hotels, such as CitizenM and Eleven, are opening hotels in the metaverse. You can find visualizations worthy of Lord of the Rings in the LEVENverse resort, where you can virtually walk around endlessly.

The virtual Duty Free!

Would you like to take a look at the airport lounge and on the plane? This is possible with Qatar Airways, Emirates and KLM.

A really great VR environment for kids: the Vacation Simulator.

Holiday in your own country

Over the past year I worked with a number of governments in the Netherlands. We looked at the possibility of offering our own holiday destination in the metaverse. The tools are becoming increasingly accessible and you even have ready-made ‘Software as a Service’ solutions with which you can easily set up your own environment.

Some officials became scared when they saw the cool virtual vacation destinations available. But will these types of virtual environments replace physical holidays? Certainly not: a virtual trip can never replace the sensation of certain tangible experiences from real life. Even though there are already headsets with feeling and smell. In addition, the metaverse is far from ‘finished’. Many elements of the technology are still in their infancy.

But no matter how you look at it: people want to fly less and sometimes don’t have a budget for going on holiday. In addition, the metaverse can provide a great new tool for the tourism and travel industry to connect with consumers.

The impact of VR

Now that VR headsets are increasingly becoming a common consumer item, VR is quickly finding its way into the daily lives of many people, including tourism. Although it has its roots in the gaming industry, I see virtual reality becoming increasingly important for other sectors. From metaverse travel to fast-paced VR tours, virtual reality is already having a huge impact on the way people choose destinations, make bookings and discover travel inspiration.

Which destination will you visit virtually this Christmas holiday?

From steam power to the internet, electricity to AI, history shows that there is always a very long time lag between the launch of a new technology and its widespread adoption. A time interval in which the technology is declared ‘dead’ and ‘unnecessary’ several times, in which legislators provide clarity for further maturation and investors provide the necessary scale capital. From cryptos to NFTs, metaverse to CBDCs… The current and expected developments are unprecedented. In this article the most important developments surrounding blockchain that I expect in the coming year.

“Cryptos are dead”, yet the world’s largest asset manager wants to give customers the opportunity to invest in them in the very short term and global adoption continues to increase. “NFTs are worthless and dead”, yet one of the world’s largest media brands (Disney) has just announced that it will be extensively working with them and the Chinese government is also increasingly recognizing them.

“Metaverse is a ghost town and dead”, yet the largest online store in the world (Amazon) announced last summer that it would be taking major steps in this area and the Korean city of Seoul set up an entire metaverse city. “Blockchains don’t work”, yet one of the largest payment services (Paypal) has stated the following: “Blockchains Are the New Financial Rails”. And in the past year, dozens of major well-known companies have announced successful integrations with the technology.

Recently, due to the media frenzy surrounding generative AI, everything surrounding blockchain technology seems to have disappeared (in the background). But nothing is what it seems. The investments continue to flow in, adoption and cool use cases increase and technological developments are launched.

The great interface shift

But why do we hear so little about it? In 2019, I already wrote about missing a ‘killer app’. The lamp ensured the worldwide acceptance of electricity. Web browser Mosaic was the one of the Internet, and email preceded iTunes and social media. In that respect, we are really missing a ‘killer app’ for blockchain.

Also missing is an easy-to-use dashboard / interface. The browser suddenly ensured that every layman could use the Internet. ChatGPT does this with AI technology. People quickly turn away from technology if it is not easy to use.

So I also understand why many people do not yet use many solutions, because they are simply too difficult. A while ago I organized an NFT Gallery around the international art fair TEFAF and here I also had a ‘POAB Disc’. If you tap this with a phone with an NFC scanner (most new phones have it), you will automatically receive a message that you could claim an NFT. But then you had to have a wallet and copy-paste a long strip of numbers/numbers. Nice gimmick, but most people declined it.

First let’s look back!

I have been writing trend blogs around blockchain technology since 2018, including last year’s trend article.A theme that I predicted then has been discussed a lot recently; decentralized social media. And not just because X owner Elon Musk posts anti-Semitic messages on his own channel and has driven away some of his biggest investors in the past month. Also consider parent company Meta (Facebook and Instagram), which has presented a payment variant. This literally makes it take it or leave it. Pay or agree to personalized ads.

We still have to wait and see whether this is even allowed in line with European legislation and regulations. But the company has already postponed the launch of its new Threads app because it fears the app will break EU rules. I recently organized a meetup to discuss, among other things, decentralized social media. This variant of social media corrects many flaws in the current central social media.

The Dutch party DeSocialWorld is taking major international steps in this regard. It inspired many people to create and use an account when the party showed how it could get $50 for making one social media post. It is really one of the positive sides of ‘DeSo’. Content creators are paid and benefit from the success of the content, rather than just the platform.

Major technology companies & blockchain

It also remains very special to see how the large technology companies in the broadest sense have been working on blockchain technology in the past year, as I predicted. Special, because the basis on which the technology is built is based on decentralized power and wants to take power away from the large central parties. But also special because they go much further than just implementing them yourself.

In my conversation on stage at the Dutch Blockchain Week, I had an extensive conversation with Google’s head of blockchain. The tech giant appears to be the largest investor in blockchain technology companies worldwide. In addition, just like cloud competitors Amazon and Microsoft, it offers a very broad package of services and platforms with which you can easily and quickly build blockchain applications.

In my opinion, we just couldn’t get enough of NFTs last year. If we look through the chocolate letters of the traditional newspapers, we have seen countless wonderful developments in the past year. The focus on just ‘expensive monkey pictures’ has now really shifted to practical use and new solutions that were not technically possible before. More about that in the trends I foresee in the coming year.

An Example

A good example of convergence is a new collection from sportswear brand Adidas. It had an AI algorithm generate countless cool sneaker design options, then printed them on the shoes with a 3D printer and turned each pair into an NFT. Not only for the owners to verify the authenticity, but also to provide all kinds of additional benefits.

1. It’s a make or break situation for the Digital Euro

Since Meta introduced its world currency ‘Libra’ (and later stopped as a project), governments worldwide have been busy with their own ‘Central Bank Digital Currency’, which I already wrote about here in 2021. 98% of global central banks are now working on this at various stages. Four have already been launched, 64 countries are already developing them and in Europe 2024 will be an important year.

Because after years of research, the European Parliament will vote for or against a European CBDC in the coming year. President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde clearly indicates that no final decision has yet been taken, but that a direction will have to be chosen next year.

CBDC

If the decision is made to develop a CBDC, the next phase will take approximately three years. The main focus here will be on drawing up rules and selecting providers who must develop the necessary infrastructure.

The euro is key to our European unity. A digital euro, existing alongside cash, would future-proof our currency. It would be safe, easy to use and free of charge.

While the decision whether to issue a digital euro will be taken later, we’re now launching the preparation phase. pic.twitter.com/fs81p7otVW

— Christine Lagarde (@Lagarde) October 19, 2023

2. We’re getting a lot of metaverse momentum again

Rarely have I seen a technology that rose in popularity so quickly and then fell again when you look at attention in the press and from investors. In a short time I received calls from parties ranging from retailers to multinationals and governments about what they could do in the metaverse. But after a short time, interest almost disappeared. It turned out to be much more difficult to work with it, but visitor numbers and the graphics used by colleagues were also quite disappointing.

But even though the candle seems to have gone out for many parties, there are also many major developments going on in the background, which could provide a lot of momentum in the coming year.

Social Media

You can say a lot about the company, but Facebook gave developments surrounding social media, a digital world currency and virtual worlds a big boost. The company invests billions in it and employs tens of thousands of developers to immediately launch products on the market at scale.

The company was punished at the stock exchange and in the press for this, but has recently surprised everyone with its updates. Founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg recently appeared on the Lex Fridman podcast, not as a person but an avatar. It looked so real that channels like X/Twitter exploded with enthusiasm.

Now there is always a sharp comment to be made about this. The company did use its own consumer headset Quest 3, but Zuckerberg’s recordings were done by specialized technology with more than 100 cameras.

Long-awaited headset Apple

While Meta is continuing to build its Metaverse platform, we will also receive the long-awaited Vision Pro from the other tech giant in the coming year; Apple. Even though it will come a little later (expectedly in March, instead of January), expectations are extremely high.

According to experts, this headset could give a whole new definition of what that means in the metaverse. But it could also cause a major shift in the way users experience the metaverse. It is expected that many developers of apps for the device (there will also be a special app store for the Vision Pro) will say goodbye to the complete isolation in which you sit as a user. The focus will be much more on how Apple also describes the glasses; ‘mixed reality’. So truly seamless interactions between both the physical and virtual worlds.

But the technology of glasses goes much further. A developer who has worked on it for years at the tech giant recently shared several technological possibilities that have now also been patented. One of the things that really stood out to me? The glasses will soon be able to predict many of your actions using AI. Whether you are interested, distracted or afraid. But also use numerous vital properties for the operation of the device, such as brain activity, heart rhythm, muscle activity, blood pressure, etc.

During experiments, this meant that something was clicked on behalf of a user before he or she could do so himself. But it can even adapt your entire virtual environment to this. It creates an environment that helps you learn/work/relax, always based on all your personal wishes and reactions.

The downside

I personally have mixed feelings about this technology. Two years ago I already wrote about the possible abuse that tech companies can make with this. With a whole new wealth of data, which is even better for, for example, running personalized advertisements, than the data we currently give companies. Fortunately, Apple has ‘privacy’ as a major core value. And so I have a little more confidence in what Meta plans to do with the data coming from the glasses.According to Stanford research, 20 million data points are used per 20 minutes per person.

Metaverse

Yet I am also happy with these personal experiences that are facilitated ‘on the spot’. Because lately I’ve been playing around in the metaverse a lot. I have visited many cool worlds, researched them and looked extensively at the possibilities for customers. It’s addicting; I always have to set an alarm to stop on time and not disappear for hours.

But I also notice that if I wear the glasses for more than half an hour, my eyes really start to hurt, I get a bit dizzy and even a bit overwhelmed. They are also reasons why, according to major research by Forrester, only 2% of professionals see themselves working in the metaverse.

3. Let’s stop talking about NFTs

The ‘financially free vloggers’ stumbled over each other with paid courses. About how you could be a millionaire in an hour by using generative AI to generate an entire collection of digital art to put up for sale as NFT with a few simple clicks. As Steve Bannon put it; ‘flood the zone with shit’.

It is wonderful that nowadays anyone can launch entire digital art collections without technical knowledge and little creativity, but it has also done a lot of damage to a concept such as NFTs. I previously wrote about the many crazy examples, such as an image of a stone that sold for 100,000 euros.

NFT Collections

After a rapidly growing hype, the concept suddenly faced a lot of headwind. According to research among 74,000 NFT collections, 95% of them now have a value of $0. The American stock market watchdog SEC is pursuing all kinds of lawsuits against makers of NFT collections and the American tax authorities want to tax the ownership of NFTs very sharply. The trading volume of NFTs fell by 95% and the number of active digital wallets, where NFTs are stored, fell by 50%.

Show, don’t just tell!

Looking to next year, all I can say is: let’s stop talking about NFTs. Why? Because most people misunderstand exactly what it means. They still have the negative association with overpriced pieces of digital content. While you can do so much more with these digital ownership certificates.

For example, parties such as watchmaker IWC and ticket giant Ticketmaster use NFT tickets to give owners access to virtual communities (token-gated content). Major clothing brands such as Adidas and Lacoste use them to strengthen their digital community. Brands like Dior and Dolce & Gabbana use NFTs to connect physical garments with virtual variants that users wear in virtual environments. Many such brands use NFTs to make it easy for owners (of expensive clothing items, for example) to verify authenticity.

But more and more new business models are also being set up. Gucci, Porsche and Nike use NFTs to offer all kinds of cool new products with their IP. Estee Lauder, Starbucks and Scotch & Soda are using NFTs again in their loyalty programs.

Cool new brands and options

That’s really the crux. Many large organizations such as Starbucks and Lufthansa already work extensively with NFTs, but simply do not call them that. On the one hand, because they are often not yet known. Recent research shows that more than 75% of people still do not understand what it means at all. But also the negative association that people have with technology.

In the coming year I expect a very strong upward trend of very cool new brands and options that will work with NFTs. Often without explicitly mentioning this. While technology is the connecting and facilitating factor. Cool collaborations such as Adidas and Bugatti, but also a brand like Lacoste, which has created a complete clothing collection together with its community through a very broad use of NFTs. Or Beatport, which offers a very comprehensive NFT platform for countless musicians.

NFTs Opportunities

My colleagues at the World Economic Forum recently launched a comprehensive report on NFTs and also concluded that the opportunities with NFTs are significant. But there is still a lot of work to be done in making it more accessible to the end user.

4. New rails, new rules

Even though I often hear people say ‘blockchain, not bitcoin’; let’s focus on the technology and not the speculative cryptocurrency trading. In the coming year, crypto could have a very positive impact on blockchain technology. As I wrote in my trend article about crypto; we go from most boring to significantly important year.

This is due to the possible approval of a so-called ‘Exchange Traded Fund’ (ETF) from the largest investor in the world; Blackrock. This suddenly makes it very easy for many traditional investors (such as pension funds) to invest in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. Bloomberg analysts now expect with 90% certainty that this will be approved at the end of December or January. A ‘flight to quality’ according to the CEO of Blackrock.

In addition, the reward for the so-called ‘miners’ (the parties that maintain the Bitcoin network, for example) will be halved in March/April.

New spectrum of investments

Historically, with every halving you always see a new ‘All Time High’ (ATH, record price) arise. Finally, the European cryptocurrency legislation and regulations ‘MICAR’ will largely come into effect. Something that will not only bring a lot of confidence to the market, but in my view also a whole new spectrum in terms of investments.

Many large investors that I work with, such as family funds and pension funds, clearly indicate that they will wait until the MICAR comes into effect before investing in it.

Why will these developments surrounding cryptocurrencies have such a tremendous positive impact on the underlying blockchain technology? First of all, because you can clearly see every time that when cryptocurrency prices rise, investments also increase very sharply. And vice versa. But also the attention of the press and adoption from both consumers and companies.

5. The never-ending game

As I wrote earlier this year; I am really happy with the ‘Brussels effect’. The fact that the European Union always makes positive headlines for setting up, developing and launching groundbreaking legislation and regulations. In my opinion, it will really bring about a very positive movement within the ecosystem next year. More clarity for builders, more confidence from investors.

The European Union is already working on follow-up steps, the first outlines of which we can see next year. Last year I wrote about the next evolution of the internet; web3. From a handful of central parties that dominate to a decentralized environment where everyone has power over their own data again. And is rewarded fairly for his contribution to the web. Where the motivations of owners, participants and developers are fully aligned.

Already working on web4

Now the developments of web3 are still in full swing and developing and less than 5% of people understand what it even means. Really driven by blockchain technology, which makes all this technically possible. But the European Union is already working on web4. Web4 is an even more decentralized version of the web with a higher level of integration between humans and machines. It is also called the symbiotic web and is still an evolving concept with no real clear definition.

The dream of the symbiotic web is symbiotic interaction between people and machines. More advanced interfaces, such as mind-controlled interfaces, for example what I expect Apple’s Vision Pro to offer.

With the extremely rapid developments in technology, the European Union does not want to wait very long with legislation and regulations this time. For example, the MICAR only came into effect 15 years after the creation of Bitcoin and blockchain. This is because we are seeing more and more convergence of technologies, such as blockchain, AI, metaverse, and IoT.

The EU wants to play an increasingly important role worldwide in the field of these types of technologies and cooperation and sees that clear legislation and regulations can be helpful in this regard. It has already started exploring the developments and required legal frameworks for this. We will see in the coming year what impact this will have.

Still a lot of work to be done!

When I write or speak about blockchain, I do so with great enthusiasm about all the possibilities and developments. It provides solutions to the major problems of our world, it restores confidence in countless vital parts of our society and provides many ways of working, earning money and distributing money fairly. Despite all the booms and busts, I’ve always been convinced that the hype would eventually fade and “real” use cases would prevail.

But we’re not there yet. In 2019, I already wrote about the decentralized dream, which seems to be falling apart. All those decentralized thoughts are nice, but 95% of crypto assets are stored centrally and not by users themselves in a virtual wallet. You see a lot of concentration of power and money with large blockchains. For example, a number of large investors own a third of Ethereum. Many DeFi (decentralized finance, which I wrote about here) can be controlled, censored and stopped by their owners through a ‘God mode’.

Developments that will make an impact

Yet, in my view, the many cool developments that have and will have a real impact in the coming year really have the upper hand. I am very curious whether the predictions regarding blockchain will come true again this year and will of course continue to follow them with enthusiasm!

It’s good to stand still sometimes, so that you can run faster again later. That is true in life and was certainly the case in the wonderful world of cryptocurrencies. Last year was perhaps the most boring year ever. Prices remained constant and the media only wrote about lawsuits. But in the background, many people are preparing for 2024, which could be the most successful year for cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. In this article, I explain the trends on which I base this.

First let’s look back

For years, Frankwatching has allowed me to look into the crystal ball for topics such as cryptocurrencies and blockchain. Since 2015 I have been very active in the sector with my own companies, board positions, the organization of numerous events/meetups and a lot of writing, on which I always base my expected trends. In addition, for this article I asked 24 thought leaders in the Netherlands and worldwide about their favorite trend of the coming year.

Last year I wrote in my trend article that the crypto dream seemed to be over for many, because the market had completely collapsed. The total size of the cryptocurrency market dropped from $3 trillion to under $1 trillion and a lot of negativity emerged. This was caused by some of the largest companies in the industry who later turned out to be fraudulent.

But in my view, these types of pullbacks are healthy for a sector such as cryptocurrency. It is now the 3rd ‘bear market’ that I have experienced, and the same things happened again as last time. Many nonsense projects (and associated cryptos) have largely been filtered out of the market, cool solutions are being built hard in the background, and all the people who predominated and were clearly in it for short-term profit are no longer available. confess. You can also see this clearly in Glassnode’s analyses. The cryptocurrency owners who have been in it the longest (sometimes more than 5 years) still have their cryptos. The people who were in it for the shortest time have now sold their cryptos for euros.

All in all, it can be argued that extreme apathy and boredom best describe the prevailing sentiment. – Glassnode

The bear market

We are in the longest bear market ever. The ‘hopium in the bear den’ remained in vain, as I predicted. For a year now I have seen countless models that analysts use to substantiate their prediction that the market will pick up strongly again, but these have proven to be wrong every time. In my view, one of the main causes is and remains the global economy, which is not in good shape. Investments in all sectors will then fail. Especially in ‘high risk assets’ such as cryptocurrencies.

Most cryptocurrency owners focus only on their prices. Not the underlying blockchain technology. A lot happened in that area last year. As I predicted: we really went from ‘magic digital money for nerds’ to proven usefulness and necessity. Blockchain, not Bitcoin, is increasingly the adage here. Numerous companies and governments have started working successfully with the technology. More and more courses are being offered in this area at Dutch educational institutions and dozens of Dutch startups are building all kinds of new technological solutions.

From rockstar to prison client

To all actors in the Dutch cryptocurrency ecosystem, I notice that everyone is preparing for next year. The year in which most people expect the ‘bull to run again’, another so-called ‘bull run’ will occur in which cryptocurrency prices will rise to new record highs. That’s because 3 incredibly important developments are going to take place that could catalyze this.

A nice development, because the past year was mainly dominated by a lot that had to be achieved from the sector. The key word here: FTX. Until the summer of 2022, this was one of the largest companies in the global cryptocurrency industry. The founder was invited to sit with heads of state, received investments from the largest investors worldwide and was estimated to have a fortune of $26 billion due to the size of the company.

Until the stock market collapsed completely in two days and unprecedented abuses surfaced. It became the largest accounting scandal in the United States ever and lawsuits against the founder and close associates are ongoing at the time of writing. The collapse severely damaged investor confidence in cryptocurrencies. A global call for even more and stricter regulation and transparency.

There is hope on the horizon

Fortunately, it is now known that a lot of money (we are talking billions) has been recovered by the curators and that most users of the exchange, including many Dutch people, will simply get their crypto back. Even though it caused a lot of misery, I think it was secretly a good thing that it happened. It is becoming increasingly clear that all the misery revolves around a handful of main characters, with founder Sam Bankman-Fried at the center.

The fact that, on the one hand, they were able to act fraudulently on such a massive scale for years and, on the other, were held in high regard by major journalists and news outlets, receive investments from the most respected funds and that no alarm bells went off among regulators is perhaps the worst part.

The actions of a handful of individuals should not be the barometer for the entire cryptocurrency industry. Hundreds of thousands of professionals and enthusiasts work every day to grow, develop and professionalize the industry.

1. The bridge to the big boys

By far the most important development next year? The possible approval of a so-called ‘Exchange Traded Fund’ (ETF). This suddenly makes it very easy for large investors to invest in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. They no longer have to buy and store the cryptos themselves, but can easily invest in large quantities through a third party. In fact, for most major investors, an ETF is the only option to invest in cryptocurrency.

Asset Manager

Not just any party, but the world’s largest asset manager, Blackrock, with $3 trillion in assets under management, applied in June last year to be allowed to issue such an ETF. Dozens of other parties have submitted applications in recent years, but they have always been rejected. In Blackrock’s 1,400 previous applications for other ETFs (on gold, for example), 99.8% were allocated. In addition, the American SEC, which supervises this, was recently dismissed by the judge in the event of such a disapproval. It ensures that the options they have to reject such an application quickly decrease.

Flight to quality

Blackrock CEO (Larry Fink) has described cryptocurrencies as a ‘flight to quality’ under current macroeconomic conditions. Something that is heard by major investors, who have already widely stated in the media that they are eager to use this ETF to also ‘expose’ themselves to cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.

An approval (I expect in January) will ensure that Blackrock will actually have to buy the Bitcoins for which it says it is investing against its major customers. This, combined with the fact that there are only a limited number of Bitcoins, means an unprecedented price increase. The catalytic effect of market psychology, which I already learned at university during my finance studies, creates even more craziness. Prices go up, which attracts even more (retail) investors, which drives the price up even further. It could easily set a record price for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin after peaking at $69,000 two years ago.

But perhaps most importantly, the fact that these mega-sized, highly respected parties are so actively involved in the cryptocurrency industry brings an unprecedented level of legitimacy and trust.

2. Half rewards create even more enthusiasm

Normally, most people are not happy when a reward for something is halved. However, within the world of cryptocurrencies, the halving of Bitcoin is seen as one of the most important moments in the further development of the currency. This is an event that takes place once every four years and where the reward for the so-called ‘miners’ (the parties that maintain the network of Bitcoins, for example) is halved.

From that moment on, they will therefore only receive half the number of Bitcoins for their work. For example, now it is 6.25 Bitcoin, the four years before 12.5 and from the next halving only 3,125.

Bear Market

Historically, you see the same pattern in the price with every halving. The halving comes after a period of sharp decline and a ‘bear market’, followed by a calmer period of consolidation and accumulation. A year after the halving we always see a new ‘All Time High’ (ATH, record price). The halving is now expected at the end of March 2024 and researchers at Delphi Digital expect that this ATH can be reached by the end of 2024.

Of course, this is never certain either. If we assume the ‘efficient market theory’ (you cannot make money with information that is publicly known), this should all already be priced in and the halving would therefore have no significant effect on the price movement of Bitcoin.

3. Cowboys head towards the exit

There is a saying in the crypto industry that there are “two wolves” within the industry. A money-grubber and a technology-wolf. People who are big fans of regulation and people who try to avoid it as much as possible. The latter group is finding it increasingly difficult, mainly thanks to the European Union.

Because after years of hard work by dozens of thought leaders in the European Union, Europe-wide cryptocurrency legislation, the MiCA, is coming into effect. It is having an unprecedented effect on most industry players, from trade shows to professional advisors. Even though there are many critics who say it hinders innovation, most industry professionals I work with (including myself) are very happy with it.

Investors

It gives all players much more clarity about what is allowed and what is not. Not only startups that build, but also companies that want to work with it and investors who want to invest money in it. In recent years I have had the opportunity to work for four ‘family funds’ (management companies for very wealthy families) and large institutional parties (such as a pension fund) and they all indicated that they really wait to invest in the industry until the MiCA is in force. . I am now hearing from various major parties that they are now making preparations to become seriously active in the industry.

Not only does it provide much more clarity, but it also filters out many cowboys who are not so strict with rules, from the industry. For example, the MiCA has ‘transparency’ as one of its main points. Something that could have prevented many major problems in recent years, such as with FTX. For example, I have recently seen many questionable companies leave for tropical islands, where supervision is nil.

4. Increasingly useful and above all: necessity

Nice, all those prices that may go through the roof, but what really matters to me is and remains the adoption of the technology. You really see a split in the crypto industry between the rich, prosperous countries and developing countries. In rich, prosperous countries, cryptos are mainly used as an investment, because we actually don’t need them anymore. The financial systems, which allow us to make a payment in a fraction of a second and virtually for free, are simply great. Why should we now exchange iDEAL and Tikkie for Bitcoin?

Frankwatching

But as I often write here on Frankwatching: cryptocurrency makes the biggest impact in developing countries. There people use cryptos in their daily lives, because their own financial system has collapsed, or because they simply do not have access to them. Or because the government suddenly blocks your bank account. The latter happened, for example, in Nigeria, when the government of that country blocked the bank accounts of the demonstrators. But no one can block Bitcoin, so the protesters receive donations in Bitcoin, which allows them to earn a living again. Something that has caused the government of Nigeria to panic.

Global cryptocurrency adoption

You can also see this clearly reflected in the ‘adoption index’ of the authoritative company Chainslysis, which can provide a very good picture of the global adoption of cryptocurrencies because of all its analysis platforms. Which countries do we see at the top? India, Vietnam and Nigeria. Also in the top 5 is Ukraine, another great example of where crypto can really have an impact. Hundreds of millions of euros worth of crypto have already been donated to the Ukrainian government, which announced the address of its crypto wallet. Because crypto payments offer a lot of transparency, government services were able to block the crypto wallets of the terrorist organization Hamas.

Many residents in developing countries do not use crypto as an investment, which can fluctuate considerably, but as a stable way of payment. Something you also see in global transactions. More than 70% of all transactions are now not done in coins (such as Bitcoin and Ripple) that can fluctuate considerably in value, but so-called ‘stablecoins’. They always retain the same value (for example, 1 Tether is always worth 1 dollar), but do have the advantages of cryptos. The size of stablecoins is now larger than PayPal and Visa credit cards.

5. But should we be happy with the big boys?

Big boys with a lot of money who make prices rise. In countless Telegram groups I see crypto fanatics with dollar signs in their eyes eagerly awaiting this moment. There are also large existing companies working on cryptocurrencies. For example, one of the largest banks worldwide, JP Morgan, processes $1 billion per day with its own JPM Coin. Because this works via its own blockchain and is not freely tradable, this has no effect on the prices of cryptocurrencies that we know.

X (Twiter)

X, the old Twitter, is also said to have big plans for the integration of cryptocurrency payments within its ‘super app’. In addition to sending Tweets, you can also easily order food or a taxi and pay with cryptocurrency. The company will make it possible to trade shares and cryptos very easily. According to Forbes, owner Elon Musk’s great love for cryptocurrencies could transform the app into an ‘updated version of Paypal’. As co-founder of Paypal, Musk obviously has all the experience with this.

But I also have concerns about the plans of the big boys. For example, Paypal already offers the option to buy or sell cryptos and now also wants to introduce its own ‘stablecoin’. But a sharp developer saw in the code that Paypal can easily delete and block things. This gives PayPal the ability to block transactions and even remove cryptos from wallets.

On to a sunny beach

We are really looking forward to a very interesting year. I am very curious whether the three major developments that I predicted earlier will actually have the predicted effect. Of course, we should not experience macro-economic developments. Cryptocurrencies, for example, have never experienced a recession. So what impact will that have on the market?

Although there are also plenty of experts who see this as a positive thing. Many crypto enthusiasts see that the current financial system with very high debt among all participants (companies, governments, consumers) is simply not sustainable. Something that can put not only consumers and companies, but even governments into bankruptcy. Bitcoin is often seen as a ‘hedge’ against this system and recently we have clearly seen that there is no longer a connection between the price development of traditional shares and bonds and cryptocurrencies.

Let’s hope I can submit the next trend article from a tropical beach! I will also keep an eye on developments for Frankwatching in the coming year with pleasure.

Disclaimer: As always, these are my personal opinions and do not in any way relate to the companies I am involved with. It is also not investment advice, but purely informative information.

Jan Scheele is active in the web3 (blockchain, crypto, NFTs, DeFi) industry since 2013. Besides (former) CEO of a web3 scaleup and founder of an advisory boutique (working for governments, family offices and several multinationals), he is Digital Leader at the World Economic Forum and Board Member at the Blockchain Netherlands Foundation (BCNL). He is writing, consulting, speaking and training regularly about everything web3, all over the world. Furthermore, he is currently finalizing his book about the rise and global impact of blockchain technology.

This month, McDonald’s is celebrating the 40th anniversary of the McNugget by opening McNuggets Land in the metaverse. Includes nugget games and coupons for free nuggets. The biggest possible nonsense, or great marketing? Most organizations currently experimenting or already active in the metaverse and targeting consumers are doing so primarily for marketing purposes. Recently I have had the opportunity to work on various projects in this area and in this article I share 3 ways to set up your own marketing in the metaverse.

Meta has already managed to do it a number of times, causing an ‘innovation trigger’. According to the Gartner Hypecycle this is:

A possible technological breakthrough that gets things going. An early proof-of-concept story, which generated a lot of media attention. Often no useful products exist and commercial viability is unproven.

After the name change of the old Facebook, we saw that the world was suddenly introduced to author Neal Stephenson’s concept: ‘metaverse’. Every professional you ask will have a different definition of the metaverse. For me it is a collective virtual 3D space, where physical and digital reality come together. Where a virtual economy emerges and is no longer dominated by a handful of technology companies, but the collective.

Even though the metaverse is sometimes declared dead, the same happened with all kinds of other technologies. Such as electricity, mobile phone, computer, internet and Bitcoin. However, it will certainly take another 10 years before such a world emerges in my opinion.

Yet there are plenty of organizations working to gain a place. There are now 148 virtual worlds active and the number of VR glasses sold has increased sixteenfold in recent years. According to McKinsey, a quarter of executives believe that more than 15% of their companies’ revenue will come from activities in the metaverse.

Virtually already fully proficient

Leaving aside the trillions of euros that American investment banks expect to handle in the virtual economies when the metaverse is fully operational, there are already a lot of consumers secretly walking around in it. On an average of 400 million on a monthly basis, more than half of whom are under 13 years of age and 84% under 18 years of age.

You also see this in the approach of many organizations in the metaverse. Focus on Generation Z. These young people, the oldest of whom are now 20 years old, are by far the most aware of virtual worlds, transactions and assets within them. They can often deal with this fluently and flawlessly. This is largely due to the gaming sector. Here you see, for example, on the largest gaming platform Roblox, that two-thirds of the 50 million daily users are younger than 16 years old.

This too will pass. Or not?

Do I find it strange that many organizations are not yet doing anything within the metaverse? Certainly not! But I do assume that the research from parties such as Gartner is correct. Within 10 years it will have an impact on 95% of organizations. In my opinion, Metaverse is one of the most prominent examples of the impact of digital transformation.

We saw with web1.0 that online marketing was mainly focused on showing a company’s contact information. With the current Web2.0, countless new possibilities suddenly emerged, such as interacting with (potential) customers and using personal data for targeted marketing.

Within web3.0 (which I wrote about before) we go a few steps further. As a user you can really immerse yourself in the virtual world. Complete immersion, or make a nice mix between our existence in the real world and the virtual one.

From nuggets to Nike

The thing that always causes the most resistance when I talk about the metaverse is virtual properties. This has been the most normal thing in the gaming world for years. Virtual swords and shields sometimes change hands for thousands of euros. Due to the NFT hype, many non-gamers have also come into contact with this. From virtual works of art to concert tickets, various assets have been and are being ‘tocanized’ (the proof of ownership is placed on blockchain technology).

The easiest way to get started with the metaverse is to create your own virtual items. You can then give these away or sell them to interested parties. You see all kinds of brands doing this: Heineken is giving away a virtual can of Silver beer, McDonald’s a virtual burger, Coca Cola special virtual goodies.

These are things that are often incomprehensible to generations born before ‘Z’, but are in great demand among ‘Z youth’. With the DressX platform you can fully set up and distribute these types of giveaways.

New business models

Should you give everything away for free? Certainly not! There are already many companies that have developed completely new business models around this.

New business models

Should you give everything away for free? Certainly not! There are already many companies that have developed completely new business models around the metaverse, inspired by the gaming industry. There are already 75 billion euros per year spent on virtual properties. In the beginning, mainly unique items were sold (where only one was offered), such as a virtual Gucci bag or crisp coat, but nowadays entire virtual clothing collections are marketed. Tommy Hilfiger, for example, launched the Tommy Parallel jeans collection.

To make this sale easier, retail chains such as Bloomingdale’s and Walmart have already opened virtual stores. Not only as a marketing campaign, but also very practical for taking the next step in e-commerce. I see really cool possibilities here, just like Google currently does within search, for example.

Virtual stores will soon be able to automatically adjust the selection of products, offers and the design of the store in a split second, based on, for example, the age and purchasing behavior of the visiting virtual customer. Personalization top.

Experiences over possessions

Collect experiences instead of possessions, I learned this from my parents and I also see this reflected in the metaverse. Virtual items are already very good to give away, but offering a real virtual experience has even more positive effects. Research shows the following:

Brand experiences have very positive effects on brand satisfaction, trust and loyalty. Subjective consumer responses that are evoked by specific brand-related experiential attributes in such settings. These subjective experiences are connections, experiences, memories and all the things that consumers feel about their products.

I previously wrote about the many tourist destinations worldwide that ensure that you can enjoy a holiday from the couch at home. I see most organizations mainly focusing on a game element. Small games, where you can win a virtual goody or, for example, receive a coupon to collect a prize in the physical world.

Raise and Sell Virtual Horses

For example, Brewery InBev sponsored a virtual riding school, where you can breed, raise and sell virtual horses. Some horses are now selling for as much as $165,000. Clothing brand Vans has set up a virtual skate park ‘Vans World’, where visitors can skate with each other virtually and buy virtual sneakers with points earned. You can also completely customize your own virtual skateboard. The virtual world already attracted 100 million visitors at the time of writing.

Car makers are also opening virtual experiences one after another. I previously wrote about Ford, which not only opened a virtual garage, but even applied for patents on virtual cars. Skoda recently went one step further by developing a true virtual cycling paradise around the Tour de France in its Skodaverse.

According to the studies, consumers are mainly active within the metaverse for entertainment. We also see this in many metaverse developments at the moment. Disney has already been awarded patents to set up virtual theme parks. With one of its latest films ‘The Flash’, Warner Bros offers a film experience based on NFTs and AR.

Virtual Experiences

They are not only completely unique worlds or completely virtual experiences, but also increasingly innovative combinations. For example, Deliveroo has developed its own game in the popular Nintendo game ‘Animal Crossing’, with which you can deliver virtual meals as a virtual delivery person. Within the first hours of launch, there were already more than three million player interactions.

Nike offers buyers of its HO20 collection an AR experience, which allows you to enter an interactive environment with all kinds of wild animals. In addition, the brand recently sold virtual shoes within one of the largest games in the world; Fortnite. And this before the physical variants were even in stores.

Unilever is also already active in the metaverse with its brands in all kinds of ways. From the first metaverse marathon, sponsored by Rexona deodorant, to the Magnum metaverse museum.

The billboards remain

Advertisements remain an important marketing tool. We are now used to targeted advertisements as part of social media. This will continue to develop within the metaverse.

You can already see the rapidly increasing size within games. For example, if you walk through GTA, you will be greeted with McDonald’s and Pepsi advertisements everywhere. In-game advertising now generates $32 billion annually. However, in-game advertisements are often not yet targeted, such as on social media. Just like with the first metaverse advertisements, you mainly see flat virtual billboards appearing.

You can get started with this yourself by using NFT Plazas, for example. This is an automatic billboard ads booking system, one of the most used

Be subtle about it

Research into in-game advertising shows that aggressively pushing ads on the nose can have a negative effect. According to research, it is precisely the subtle processing of your brand in a virtual environment, for example, that significantly increases purchasing intentions.

Are they just flat ads? No. More and more companies are using virtual influencers. Indeed, the virtual Enzo Knols. They sometimes have millions of followers and an even greater reach. In the United States, more than 50% of consumers already follow at least 1 virtual influencer.

For example, Samsung used virtual influencers Shudu and Miquele to promote their new Samsung Galaxy Z.

But marketing is more than just advertising. You can also achieve great results in terms of brand experience with sponsored content or even adopting entire virtual environments. The example remains Nike’s Nikeland, where you can practice 11 sports and view products. But also mayonnaise brand Hellmann, which has sponsored a virtual game about food waste. Players were able to donate their virtual food waste, which resulted in the donation of 50,000 meals to the physical food bank.

This is just the beginning. With the rapidly developing technology, I expect that you will soon be able to advertise specifically based on demographic characteristics, for example. Maybe even more; on emotion. Something that VR glasses can already read and with which you can therefore conduct even more targeted marketing, according to research. The latest VR glasses track pupil size, heart rate and muscle movements.

Talking is also allowed!

Do you serve a special community with your organization, which you can certainly bring together virtually? In addition to games and a virtual counter, you can also create a virtual meeting place where your (potential) customers can come together. Something that all kinds of major football clubs such as FC Barcelona and Manchester and clubs such as Amnesia Ibiza are already working on, but also more and more companies.

For example, auction house Sotheby’s launched the ‘Voltaire Art District’. This is a replica of the physical auction house in London. In this virtual auction place you will be welcomed by a virtual auctioneer and you can chat with all the other virtual visitors. The first results are above expectations. The reason is that the auction house was able to welcome many new target groups that it normally never receives in its physical buildings.

Spotify has set up such a virtual world to bring musicians and their fans together.

How to get started with the metaverse

Before you start giving away virtual nuggets or lighting a virtual campfire, it is important to first do extensive preliminary work.

Analyze what similar organizations are currently doing in terms of marketing in the metaverse and what is not going well here. There are already good use cases available in almost every industry. Companies often blog about their experiences on their own website.

Analyze the target group(s) you want to address in the metaverse. How far have they gone on their own ‘metaverse journey’? Are they already metaverse-native, or can they just put on VR glasses? Or not yet? What interest do they have in virtual activities? Why would they come at all?

Should there be a link to something in the physical world? What possible impact does virtual marketing have on physical promotions, products and services?

Not to start from scratch…

See if you can embed a metaverse marketing campaign into an existing, physical marketing campaign. For example, if you sell clothing, create virtual variants that you can give away or sell. Are you organizing a launch event? Then try to offer a virtual variant (and I really mean 3D, no Zoom / Teams!), with additional options.

However, do not copy the existing marketing KPIs 1-on-1 from the existing, physical actions. You really enter a completely different playing field, with different channels, expectations and possibilities.

Take a closer look at the story you want to tell. What works on video and in a podcast must be told in three dimensions in the metaverse. Is that possible?

It is and remains completely uncharted territory for most organizations, so ensure a rapid, continuous testing & learning approach in the beginning. Learn from the numbers and responses every week by experimenting to immediately adjust possible actions. Technology is changing rapidly, so your metaverse marketing plan should really be a rolling strategy.

Crowdsource ideas! Don’t just rely on the brainfarts that you or a consultant come up with, but also open up the question within the entire internal organization or even your community. Car manufacturer BMW, for example, does this with its Metaverse Supplierton.

Unfortunately, also metaverse abuse

The metaverse offers unprecedented opportunities for marketers to better reach their target groups in completely different ways. Unfortunately, there are still plenty of challenges. Not only are there still many obstacles to overcome on the path to mass adoption, criminals are always super innovative (and often the first users of new technologies, such as email and Bitcoin) and are now also carrying out all kinds of crimes in the metaverse .

The misuse of user data is also a major concern for most users. Unfortunately, only 1.3% of the metaverses are actually Web3.0, the rest are only Web2.0 based.

But just like the early days of social media weren’t perfect, you can’t expect the metaverse to be perfect from the start. We don’t know what exactly the metaverse will look like, but I’m confident it will drastically change the way companies interact with their customers. It’s better to think about this today than tomorrow.

After the Second World War, a financial-economic agreement was concluded between the economic giants in the American Bretton Woods. The American plan won (tying the dollar to gold) against the plan of one of the most influential economists we’ve ever known, Keynes. Keynes wanted a global bank with a global currency, the Bancor. This system would be used to settle international payments and to keep trade surpluses in check. More than 75 years later, Keynes’ idea seems to flourish again with the launch of the Worldcoin. In this article everything about this new coin.

There are currently 180 recognized currencies in the world and many thousands of other monetary systems. From bottle caps in Cameroon and space coins at NASA, to many local initiatives such as Berkshares in the United States, Fureai kippu in Japan, Bus Tokens in Brazil and the BijlmerEuro in the Netherlands.

Every designer of a system will say that his system works best, but which system really is? A study (pdf) of 599 different types of “failed” monetary systems found that one third failed because of the dissolution of the monetary union in which the system was used and one third because of wars. Due to the Second World War alone, 95 money systems disappeared. The average age of a money system, according to the study, is 39 years, almost exactly the age of today’s Dollar, after Bretton Woods ended in 1971.

One coin to rule them all

Since I have been active in the web3 ecosystem (everything related to blockchain, crypto, DAOs, etc.) in 2015, I have seen continuous skepticism from the media. But that has always been the case with new technologies. Every new technology is used by criminals, every new technology in principle makes mistakes and, in addition to a positive, also has a negative impact on our society.

That’s how I look at the Worldcoin, with a sober look at what positive and negative sides there are. If we look at the two main solutions — a world currency and a world identity — I see advantages that we as Westerners do not easily see, because we are simply too good. Almost every Dutch person has an almost free payment system with Tikkie and iDeal, just like an identity number and accompanying ID card.

But according to the World Bank, there are still 1.5 billion people worldwide who have no access to the financial system. These are often people who easily pay 20% transaction costs for money that they want to send to their family in the home country, for example. Indeed, it costs a lot of money to be poor. In addition, access to the financial system is the most important factor to develop a country.

A subject that Queen Maxima is busy with.

In addition, according to the same World Bank, there are still more than a billion people who do not have a formal identity. No identification number, no paperwork or proof that you are who you say you are. Now you would say, if you don’t pee wildly or never fly outside Europe, then you don’t have to show your identity. But secretly there are a lot of things for which you have to be able to provide an identity. Voting, opening a bank account, in healthcare and countless other elementary processes in our society.

Proof of human

I also think it’s an interesting idea to prove you’re not an AI-generated fake persona. A recent study by DuckDuckGoose from Delft showed that when applying for a bank account at Rabobank, deepfakes passed the face check in 80% of the applications.

That the very person who introduced AI’s “killer app” (ChatGPT) to the global public now comes up with a new solution to distinguish between humans and machines, because he believes that sooner or later AI will pose a great danger will shape for society, is of course special.

Free money for everyone

One of the higher goals of the Worldcoin is to establish a global system for the issuance of a Universal Basic Income. We already saw a kind of this during corona, when paper checks were still sent in America and in the Netherlands we could apply for all kinds of different surcharges.

It’s an idea that appeals to a lot of people. If we have a society rich enough to end poverty, then we have a moral obligation to find out how to do that. — Sam Altman, Founder Worldcoin

Rutger Bregman spoke about this at TEDxMaastricht years ago. In his TED talk he gave many interesting studies and ideas why such a UBI would be a very good idea:

iris scan

To verify yourself as a real human being, you must have your iris scanned by a so-called orb. A chrome bowling ball, with all kinds of infrared cameras, sensors and AI-controlled neural networks that regulates this within 2–3 seconds. The ball was designed by the first designer hired at Apple by chief designer Jony Ive, Thomas Meyerhoffer.

I often use Privium at Schiphol myself. With an eye scan I get through customs within half a minute. That’s where I see the benefits of using biometric data. Nevertheless, there are many critical voices from experts, especially about the fact that all this data is stored centrally. A ‘honey pot’ for hackers.

Don’t catalog eyeballs. Don’t use biometrics for anti-fraud. In fact, don’t use biometrics for anything. — Edward Snowden

On the other hand, such a system already exists within the country with the most inhabitants in the world: India. This is where 99.9% of adults have stored their biometric data, for the ID system Adhaar. In Worldcoin’s privacy statement you can also see that the default setting for users is that no data is stored.

I think the marketing campaign that immediately rewards activated users with a number of Worldcoins is brilliant. Paypal also did this in the beginning and according to the founders this was the breakthrough for mass adoption. I still find the name for the scanning device special: orb is a super criminal from the Marvel comic books. But perhaps this is a nod to traditional financial institutions and governments, because of the disruptive nature of the project.

The system itself was praised by one of the most important people in blockchain technology, Ethereum founder Vitalik Butherin, for the many cryptographic elements it contains to ensure security, such as “Zero Knowldege Proofs”, which I wrote about here earlier. In addition, also the cyberpunk elements, such as cutting out traditional financial institutions from the whole and also making governments virtually superfluous.

Big tech is expanding

All these security measures mean that the data must be stored centrally. Not, as is always intended with blockchain technology, decentralized. Critics therefore expressed their concerns about yet another Silicon Valley company, which will have global power, under a so-called inclusive banner. For example, Meta’s products are “built to better bring people together and form stronger relationships”, something that we can sometimes question with all the experience in recent years.

We are seeing more of these kinds of major shifts from tasks that you normally expect in a government to ‘big tech’. Parties such as Amazon, Apple and Google are investing en masse in healthcare and education. You may find this scary, because of ever-increasing power. On the other hand, these parties can offer very effective solutions with their data.

The first integrations have already been launched. For example, you can already log in to Twitter and ChatGPT with your Worldcoin ID. In addition, it has announced an integration with Okta, one of the largest global players in online identity. The first two million users have been onboarded and with the offering of the ‘orb’ in 35 cities in 20 countries, this number will continue to rise considerably in the coming period.

A new revolution in the field of global financial inclusivity or yet another well-tried one-hit wonder? We’ll see in the near future!

Jan Scheele is active in the web3 (blockchain, crypto, NFTs, DeFi) industry since 2013. Besides (former) CEO of a web3 scaleup and founder of an advisory boutique (working for governments, family offices and several multinationals), he is Digital Leader at the World Economic Forum and Board Member at the Blockchain Netherlands Foundation (BCNL). He is writing, consulting, speaking and training regularly about everything web3, all over the world. Furthermore, he is currently finalizing his book about the rise and global impact of blockchain technology.

It’s the calm before the storm, but what kind of storm? I can’t predict that yet. As a ‘finance’ graduate, I mainly foresee a ‘perfect storm’: severe economic weather with all kinds of knock-on effects on the economy. On the other hand, there are numerous predictions and expectations surrounding cryptocurrency, pointing to a stormy growth of the market in the coming months. In this article, I will therefore discuss the latest trends and my expectations.

The crypto industry is largely defined by extremes. From the frenzied DeFi summer to the lingering cold of the crypto winter. And from simple Dogecoin investors to builders of a super-advanced Dutch algorithmic stablecoin. But also the prices of the cryptocurrency. Earlier I wrote about consumers, businesses, and investors around the world who lost nearly $2 trillion in the cryptocurrency market last year after it reached $3 trillion in total value at its peak.

The cryptocurrency sector is now growing rapidly again after this difficult year. There are now more than 350 million users. They traded more than $100 billion in the past month. The largest investors worldwide announce that they will invest in the sector or that they will enable this for customers. Microsoft is working on its own crypto wallet in Edge and it was recently discovered that a copy of Bitcoin’s “whitepaper” (business plan) is hidden on every Macbook.

Cryptocurrency: the practical use

Something I often see passing by with new technologies: a solution that is looking for a problem. Something that should of course be the other way around. Nice, this technology, but is it the best solution for an existing problem? That is a question that has long been asked about cryptocurrencies. What is the practical use?

In 2023, I don’t see that practical use so quickly in Western countries. Our financial system is too good for that with almost free banking services, IDeal and Tikkie. But in Ukraine, for example, they think differently, because hundreds of millions of euros in donations have already entered the country via cryptocurrency. Easy and very fast, from all over the world. From helmets to medicines; everything necessary for the war is bought with it.

Financial structure worldwide

I see that real impact emerging in more and more developing countries. For example, last year I was allowed to implement cryptocurrency in the Central African Republic. A country where 5% of the adult population has a bank account and the rest have to make do with cash or other forms of money. Because the government is going to give everyone a mobile phone with a cryptowallet, everyone will soon be able to store, send and trade their own landcoin in it. In addition, you can also vote with the same crypto wallet and, for example, store your land rights (which we have centrally located at the Kadaster in the Netherlands).

With the recent (near) collapse of banks and the pain that has not yet been resolved after the previous financial crisis around 2008/2009, it is also about restoring confidence. Confidence in perhaps the most important (infra)structure we have in the world, namely the financial one. And there’s a lot wrong with that. Coinbase research shows that 80% of Americans think the current financial system is mostly good for the top 1%, and 67% think the entire system needs to be overhauled.

In addition to El Salvador and the Central African Republic, news came out last week that Bitcoin will become legal tender in the Principality of Liechtenstein.

Central exchange or own wallet?

Cryptocurrency originated with a decentralized thought. You are in charge of your own money and have control over your own virtual wallet. This is therefore not with a central party, for example, a bank. Yet 80% of cryptocurrency owners have their coins on a central exchange. Often because they find this easier, because having your own wallet can be technically complex, and if you forget the access key, you will really lose your cryptocurrency. Not your keys, not your coins.

But given last year’s events, many owners have lost faith in central exchanges and are taking back control of their crypto by storing everything in their own wallets. That exodus from central exchanges to decentralized wallets went by hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins per month in the past quarter. A trend that will certainly continue in the coming years.

Fraud and mistrust

It was grist to the mill for many legislators, but above all, it was also a reason to come up with suitable legislation for cryptocurrencies even more quickly. The fall of one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges, FTX. Billions of dollars were missing and the temporary receiver, who had also handled the bankruptcy of the largest accounting fraud in American history (Enron), were clear:

Because of its scale, this fraud even exceeded Enron’s and the largest in American history. Just like with Enron, the same thing is happening now in terms of reactions: the industry is waking up and regulators are accelerating with the right laws and regulations.

Crusade Against Cryptocurrency

Two camps have arisen here worldwide, namely the American and European. In America, the Biden administration focused extensively on cryptocurrencies in its annual Economic Report of the President. The report included an entire chapter on “digital assets,” describing how the crypto industry is causing problems for consumers, the financial system, and the environment.

In recent weeks it has also become clear that the American regulator SEC (the AFM in the Netherlands) has started a crusade against everything that has to do with cryptocurrencies. Several major trade exchanges have been sued, as have influencers, business people, and companies inside and outside the industry. The head of the SEC, Gary Gensler, wrote earlier that the rules he has for all these individuals and organizations are crystal clear, but unfortunately, they are not. Something that was made painfully clear even during a hearing in the US parliament during an interrogation of Gensler.

Operation Choke Point

But an even worse development is “Operation Chokepoint 2.0”. An apparent follow-up to an Operation Chokepoint campaign launched by President Obama. This is to deny legal, but politically undesirable companies, such as arms manufacturers and payday loan providers, access to banking services. Something that is necessary to run a normal business.

These measures not only seem to circumvent due process of law but also seem to repeat violations for which previous US government agencies have already been severely punished by both legislators and the legal system. The collapse of Silvergate Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, and Signature Bank has led many to believe that the US government is closing access to crypto services simply by allowing crypto-friendly banks to collapse.

New York regulators and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) jumped on board to indicate that the shutdown had nothing to do with crypto. However, when Signature’s assets and bank branches were acquired, the new owner Flagstar Bank chose not to acquire Signature’s cryptocurrency business.

The Brussels Effect

The European Parliament does many things that do not make me happy. Still, I think it’s great that the institute is always positively in the news for setting up, developing, and launching groundbreaking legislation and regulations. The ‘Brussels effect’. This legislation often inspires other governments worldwide and is sometimes even literally copied. We saw this before with regard to privacy and in the coming year it will be the turn of cryptocurrencies around the ‘MICAR’ legislation.

Lawmakers in the European Union voted 517 to 38 in favor of the MICAR last week. This makes it the first major jurisdiction in the world to introduce a comprehensive crypto law. The legislation extensively addresses the obligation for all industry service providers to identify customers. As well as stablecoins and crypto trading exchange balances.

The Netherlands wants to be the best boy in the class again. Moreover, The head of the AFM, Laura van Geest, wrote in the FD that she wants to maintain a “tough attitude” towards the Dutch cryptocurrency sector. Whether companies leave abroad because of this, the top woman leaves cold.

Dangers and success stories

Recently I spoke extensively with Bas Lemmens, the worldwide General Manager of Chainalysis. The analysis company for the cryptocurrency sector. The services of these are used by almost all investigative services worldwide, such as the Dutch Police and AIVD. He indicated that their analyzes showed that crime within the cryptocurrency sector has not decreased and will continue to grow in the coming years.

A new trend, for example, is the ‘pig butchering scams’. In this, the hacker slowly builds a relationship of trust with ignorant consumers, especially Western millennials and the elderly. The hackers create fake social media accounts via WhatsApp and even profiles on LinkedIn and dating sites. Here they show a lavish lifestyle and send random messages to get in touch with victims. After a brief but powerful relationship, they drain the victim’s cryptocurrency account in a flash.

Fortunately, there are also stories where the investigative authorities are successful in catching the crooks. The best recent example, which received worldwide attention, is that of the operation ‘Deadbolt’ by the Dutch Police.

Price of cryptocurrency

The price of Bitcoin has now doubled from its lowest price at the beginning of this year. Technology is developing rapidly and with it, major challenges are also being tackled, such as energy consumption. The second largest blockchain, Ethereum, already got an amazing upgrade last year and decreased its energy consumption by 99.98%. To maintain the largest blockchain, Bitcoin, more than half of the energy now comes from natural sources. Such as hydropower (24%) and wind (14%).

Challenges will continue to come. The Ethereum blockchain got completely stuck years ago due to the success of the first NFT; Cryptokitties. The same happened last week with the Bitcoin blockchain due to the new token standard BRC-20. This will add NFTs to this blockchain. As a result, even the largest cryptocurrency exchange (Binance) had to pause Bitcoin withdrawals twice. This is due to a crashing network. The transaction costs on the network even increased from $1 to $20.

Easy to make and buy

We also suddenly saw the meme coin Pepe rise by 5,000,000% last week. An investor who bought for $263 made a profit of $9 million. It caused unprecedented growth in the number of crypto investors in a short period of time. We will see this type of coin much more often because it is becoming easier to make them. So easy that you can make one yourself within 23 seconds.

It is also becoming easier to buy cryptocurrencies. For example, you can easily buy cryptocurrency via Twitter’s ‘Superapp’, which is still being developed. Also, the largest cryptowallet MetaMask now offers an option to do this, with ‘fiat’ (Euros / Dollars) money. Where China makes it very difficult and has also banned the purchase of cryptocurrencies, the floodgates will open in Hong Kong in June. Looser regulation will allow companies operating in the cryptocurrency sector to easily establish themselves there.

Final weather forecast

Whether we will see a giant leap in cryptocurrency prices in the coming months remains to be seen. As I wrote earlier, many technical analyzes show that this is very much possible. But it is also the first time that cryptocurrencies have experienced a recession whose effects are not yet clear.

Jan Scheele is active in the web3 (blockchain, crypto, NFTs, DeFi) industry since 2013. Besides (former) CEO of a web3 scaleup and founder of an advisory boutique (working for governments, family offices and several multinationals), he is Digital Leader at the World Economic Forum and Board Member at the Blockchain Netherlands Foundation (BCNL). He is writing, consulting, speaking and training regularly about everything web3, all over the world. Furthermore, he is currently finalizing his book about the rise and global impact of blockchain technology.

Games for money have been played since time immemorial. Something that adults usually stop doing when they have to earn serious money for a living. Getting rich through play was previously only reserved for the top 1% esports athletes. But, in the past year, this has rapidly become possible for a much larger group of people, thanks to GameFi. I think this will be the biggest trend in cryptocurrency and blockchain in the coming year.

The global game industry is now more than 4 times the size of the global film industry and music industry combined. The gaming industry has an annual revenue of more than $267 billion, compared to the movie industry with $42.5 billion and the music industry with $19 billion in 2018, including streaming. About 3 billion people now play online games, even though many don’t consider themselves “gamers” (yes, Candy Crush counts too).

Big tech & big box

Let’s take a look at the in-game purchases. These are the upgrades that you can buy within a game, such as a beautiful virtual piece of clothing or sword. Last year, $145 billion was spent on this. Critics who don’t believe people spend money on digital art (NFTs) and digital clothing should jokingly look at the magnitude of this within the gaming sector alone.

Even though Google recently announced that it would stop its own gaming platform Stadia, the other big tech companies such as Apple, Facebook, Amazon, and Microsoft are investing heavily in their own games and platforms. They also see how much money can be made in this sector. A sector that continues to grow in terms of users and turnover. A bizarre example is Apple. Apple, alone, does not make its own games. This while 80% of the money is made by games in the App Store. Over 1 billion people play games on the iPhone or iPad, making iOS by far the most popular video game platform in the world.

Due to the amount of money invested in gaming by big tech, an insane amount of games are coming onto the market. But the influence of big tech also has disadvantages. Just like in the field of AI (between Google and Microsoft), there is a major battle going on between the titans for the user. Recently, even governments have called a halt to this. They have blocked the acquisition of one of the largest game developers (ActivisionBlizzard) by Microsoft, worth almost $70 billion.

The emergence of transparent gardens

But the ‘walled gardens’ are also becoming increasingly visible. Apple has been in a lot of trouble with this lately. For example, because it kept its own ecosystem so closed that all payments within the App Store must go through the company and it charges a 30% commission for this. This alone has brought in $85 billion in the past year. You also have these kinds of closed ecosystems within the gaming industry. This makes it impossible, for example, to take a beautiful virtual piece of clothing or sword from one game to another.

Since the emergence of blockchain technology, we have seen several applications that change the way we exchange and store value. What started with an open and more transparent way of storing and sending money (Bitcoin) developed into an open and more transparent way of storing title deeds of assets (Tokenization, which also includes NFTs). In my opinion, one of the most interesting new applications in the blockchain field is GameFi. A concept that combines traditional gaming with blockchain technology. This creates a wealth of new opportunities for players and developers alike.

Play to earn

This completely turns the business model of traditional games that are currently offered on its head. Instead of extracting as much money as possible from players (for example, through licenses and in-game purchases), GameFi offers players the opportunity to earn money in the form of cryptocurrencies or other digital assets. Here the emphasis is really on the development of the economy within the game. Rewards are automatically distributed by so-called ‘smart contracts’. This makes human error and fraud impossible. In addition, these rewards can also be traded or used outside of the game.

However, the concept is not new. You already saw elements of GameFi emerging in Second Life. There was a real in-game currency (the Linden dollar) and transactions of virtual items. Back then, people were already making millions of dollars selling virtual in-game items. The real breakthrough of this came through the World of Warcraft game, where tens of thousands of euros were paid for the virtual blue eggs on eBay. The biggest game platforms of the moment, such as Activation Blizzard and Roblox, already have their own digital currency with which players can pay.

In October 2017, blockchain technology also came into play in games. This happened when the Canadian company Axiom Zen released the Cryptokitties. Cute cats that users could breed based on their genetic traits. Over 1 million virtual cats were bred, with the most expensive selling for over $1 million. It was also the first successful NFT project, a few years before it became a hype at all.

A new economy

GameFi goes beyond just earning rewards. It’s also about creating a community of players who can collaborate, trade, and invest in the game’s economy. The possibilities of this came to light during corona, when people looked for alternative sources of income. Some players in Southeast Asia managed to earn more than an average monthly income playing blockchain games like Axie Infinity.

All expectations surrounding the transaction volume of the most popular games were soon crushed. The transaction volume within Axie Infinity and DeFi Kingdoms alone was $400 million per day. Meanwhile, the total of GameFi games has already risen to $ 10 billion. I myself really blame this on the fact that the traditional game builders simply had no trading function in the virtual assets that you could buy in the game.

By using cryptocurrencies, this can suddenly be done very quickly and cheaply within blockchain games. NFTs also ensure that you can also record property rights. The smart contracts ensure automatic, direct, and efficient handling. All this strengthens, simplifies, and accelerates the trading of virtual properties within the games.

For example, there were full-time gamers in the Philippines who bred “Axies” and resold them to Western collectors. In addition, they could earn Axie Infinity’s in-game token (AXS) by winning battles and completing quests. They could then sell these AXS tokens for dollars, for example, to pay for their daily living.

The next level

Of course, the $ 10 billion that has been spent on GameFi so far is little. Especially if you compare it to the total size of the traditional gaming sector. The players from this are slowly warming up to the idea of also making their games with blockchain technology.

Epic Games is already experimenting with the Blankos Block Party, and Apple allows the sale of NFTs in apps within the App Store. I think traditional players are also increasingly being forced to build and release games in this way. More and more users experience both the convenience and the great possibilities of all kinds of new options that blockchain technology offers. Blockchain technology is still in its infancy in many areas, so it will be some time before it is widely adopted.

Legislators have also woken up.

They are not only concerned with laws and regulations but also with new types of taxes for these new economies and activities. The quality of many games is not yet at the level of the range of traditional games. But the past year has shown how fast developments can go. With the large sums of money currently being invested in GameFi, the fact that you can earn money through play and the current size of the gaming industry alone, I think GameFi could become very big in the near future.

Jan Scheele is active in the web3 (blockchain, crypto, NFTs, DeFi) industry since 2013. Besides (former) CEO of a web3 scaleup and founder of an advisory boutique (working for governments, family offices and several multinationals), he is Digital Leader at the World Economic Forum and Board Member at the Blockchain Netherlands Foundation (BCNL). He is writing, consulting, speaking and training regularly about everything web3, all over the world. Furthermore, he is currently finalizing his book about the rise and global impact of blockchain technology.